Can Fort Knox Be Audited? Here’s How Long It Could Potentially Take

Key Takeaways

1. DOGE plans to audit Fort Knox’s 147.3 million ounces of gold, roughly 59% of the Treasury’s supply with a market value of $431 billion (at $2,930/oz).
2. We estimate that a physical audit of the gold at the depository will take no less than 18 months to complete, with roughly 44,400 man-hours of work to be done.
3. We estimate that timeframe to require 20 personnel, 18 high-quality scales, 18 portable XRF scanners, 2 boring drills, 18 item carts, and appropriate additional lighting.

Billionaire Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is considering an audit of Fort Knox, the nation’s largest repository of gold.

The suggested task is a massive one. An incredible 147.3 million ounces of gold are kept at the Kentucky installation.

To understand how much gold that is, consider the following: the depository keeps its gold in 400 oz gold bars, which weigh approximately 27.5 pounds each. Some quick math translates that 147.3 million ounces to 368,250 bars. For those keeping track, that’s roughly 10.1 million pounds, or more than 5,000 tons.

Upon review of Fort Knox’s unique challenges, we’ve estimated that it cannot be completed in less than 18 months.

The Logistics of the Fort Knox Vault

There are significant physical and logistical challenges associated with an audit of the Fort Knox vault. The gold is stored in 13 sealed compartments. Each of these compartments is 6 feet wide, 12 feet deep, and 8 feet tall.

The bars themselves are stacked tightly together and on top of one another. Details of the exact configuration are scarce due to the facility’s security and secrecy. We have seen photographs that show the bars stacked sometimes all the way to the ceiling, and sometimes 4 – 5 rows deep.

The other logistical issue is that it will necessitate the movement of more than 368 thousand bars out of their compartments for recording and testing. Then, the crew will have to move the bars back to their previous locations.

Space is at a bit of a premium in the facility, too. The entire vault is described as being “less than 4000 square feet”, and assuming that the collective space taken by the compartments is about 936 square feet (6’ x 12’ x 13), the remaining 3000 square feet spread on two floors is hardly enough space for a forklift.

So, no more than 20 people could be inside the area at once, and nothing more than a hand truck can help to move the mass of 368,250 bars. With all that said, here’s what the audit process might be.

The Auditing Process

Though auditing the vault at Fort Knox is likely the most complex task an auditor might undertake, the procedure for doing so remains roughly the same. However, the time we’ve estimated necessary to go through the process is only an educated guess, as numerous delays and complications may arise during the steps. Here’s what it might look like:

Step 1 – Authorization and Organization

Expected time to completion:  2 months

The entire process begins with attaining the proper clearances for Musk and his workers. It is reasonable to assume that it will take a minimum of one month to get 20 people certified to enter the vault area. In fact, it would not be surprising if – even with pressure from the President and the Secretary of the Treasury – the background checks would require 2 months to complete.

Once everyone is cleared, the first step would be to get all of the vault’s inventory records together. Ideally, auditors gain access to these prior to entry into the vault so that they can study them and get a few things in mind.

All evidence suggests that the bars at Fort Knox are numbered, as numbers are visible on the bars in the few pictures of the vault that exist. So, the auditors need to find out what system is in place already, including the serial numbers of bars assigned to each of the vault’s 13 compartments.

They will also need to check the inventory reports from different periods and make sure they have an understanding of when and how the supply increased or decreased. Furthermore, auditors need to establish a chain of custody for any bars that have been moved to identify whom to interview if there are discrepancies.

Finally, they need to familiarize themselves with the agreed-upon recording procedures, the operation and calibration of their scales, and the operation and calibration of their purity scanners.

The actual organization and preparation would likely be a fairly short process. The crew of 20 would probably need no more than a couple of weeks.

Step 2 – The Physical Audit

Estimated time to completion: 14 months

There are a few assumptions we have to make before we begin. The first assumption is the idea that 20 people are to be allowed into the vault. Any less will extend the time estimate.

The second assumption is that each person will work somewhat independently. They are likely to have a small cart with their inventory assignments, report sheets, scales, and purity scanners.

The final assumption, however, is that 1 or 2 team members will need to remain on call to research and process any bars found to be out of compliance. They will have their own scanners, but may also need a small drill to procure purity samples for discrepant bars.

The procedure for each bar is as follows:

• Remove the bar from its compartment and place it on the cart.
• Move to a work area.
• Record the bar’s existing (or new, if necessary) serial number.
• Inspect the bar for any flaws or significant wear and tear and note accordingly.
• Calibrate the scale, then weigh the bar twice to ensure accuracy, and record the finding.
• Make a minimal scratch on the bar and use a portable X-Ray fluorescence scanner (XRF) to assess the bar’s purity level.
• If the scanner’s results are inconclusive, place the bar in a reserve area.
• If the purity is confirmed to be accurate, return the bar to the cart.
• Return the bar to its compartment and place it as near to its original position as possible

Overall, the entire procedure for each bar would take less than five minutes. However, we have to allot some time for the physical movement of the gold itself. Remember, these bars are stacked to the ceiling in some cases, and getting the bars from the bottom of the stack requires moving thousands of pounds of other bars to complete.

So, a bar might take 3 – 4 minutes to check, or it might take as long as 15. For our estimate, we will peg the time per bar at seven minutes.

Thus, it will take a grand total of 2,577,750 minutes (368,250 bar x 7 minutes), or roughly 42,963 man-hours of work to complete the physical audit. If we assume that 18 of the 20 crew members are actively auditing, it will take each team member about 2,387 hours of work per person.

Now, based on 8-hour workdays and 22 workdays per month, each worker can contribute 176 hours to the project per month. Thus, dividing the 2387 hours per person by 176 results in an estimated time to completion of 13.56 months. For simplicity, we’ll round off to the next month for the estimate and guess that a physical audit of all the bars in Fort Knox will take 14 months to complete.

Step 3 – Discrepancies

As mentioned, any bars identified as being significantly underweight or bearing a different purity than indicated by historical records would need to move to the two researching auditors in a reserve area. Once a bar entered this area, the auditors would need to reweigh and rescan it to confirm the discrepancy or discrepancies.

If a purity discrepancy is confirmed to exist, the auditors will need to drill a small core from it, package the sample, and send it to an independent lab for testing. The lab would then need to test the sample with more precise machinery.

Based on shipping and processing times, it would take no less than a week to test all of the samples. If a purity problem is found to be widespread, it may bloat the time to complete this step significantly.

If a weight discrepancy is confirmed to exist, the auditors will need to investigate the historical records more intensely to try and determine when and how the bar was damaged or was reduced from its stamped weight. We don’t know how long the research would take or if anything conclusive would be available, but the auditors would at least need to spend an hour on each bar.

This step is the most difficult to estimate in terms of its time to completion because of the utterly unknown number of bars that will be found out of compliance. So, for expediency, we’ll peg the time estimate to be equal to or less than the time for the physical audit, and since it will happen concurrently, it will have no effect on the overall timing.

Reporting and QA

Expected time to completion: 1.5-2 months

The last step won’t take place at the US Bullion Depository. The audit team will have undoubtedly created a mountain of data from this exercise and will need to take the time to process it carefully.

In addition, auditors will need to do a detailed study of all the past audits conducted on the facility. Some independent journalists have written about the difficulty of finding some of these reports.

It would also be wise to have an independent auditor double-check all of the findings and assumptions within the report prior to its submission. One of the chief criticisms of many past audits of Fort Knox has been the fact that they have been conducted using government resources, rather than independent ones. A quality assurance check from outside the government might be a step worth taking.

Whatever the audit reveals, it is certainly information to be reported in full to the appropriate oversight committees in Congress.

Ensuring accuracy in the reporting is crucial. It is also time-consuming, so we expect the reporting and quality assurance elements to last a bit of time.

Conclusion

Some quick addition reveals that we estimate an audit of Fort Knox to last around 18  months – at the very least. In other words, this figure is about the most optimistic we can guess.

On the other hand, some of those elements cannot be rushed. Additionally, an audit is supposed to be thorough and accurate – two qualities that are the enemy of speed.

So, we’ll see if he goes through with it in the end. However, auditing Fort Knox may be one of the most challenging jobs that the DOGE has envisioned to date.

A Word on Our Analysis

We should note that our assessment comes with inherent limitations. Despite our background in precious metals, the classified nature of Fort Knox means we’ve had to work with incomplete information and make reasonable assumptions throughout our analysis.

Auditing over 368,000 gold bars is an enormous undertaking by any standard. The complexity isn’t just in the numbers—it’s in the procedural rigor required for an asset of national importance.

DOGE’s approach may differ significantly from what we’ve outlined here. Our intention wasn’t to prescribe a method but rather to illustrate the magnitude of what lies ahead. This audit represents one of the most significant verification projects in modern financial history, and its execution will likely evolve as the team encounters the practical realities of the task.