Gold is stronger today as the market sees a bit of a bounce following yesterday’s losses. Gold was hit hard yesterday and was pushed down to a low of $1046 and change per-ounce. Stocks were also hit hard yesterday in what may be indicative of investors’ reaction to the first interest rate hike in nearly a decade.
Now that the FOMC meeting is over and the uncertainty surrounding it has dissipated, investors will likely turn their attention to the commodity and currency markets. Crude oil remains a center of attention as prices continue to slump. Prices are back in the mid-30s today and appear headed for further downside. Twenty dollar per barrel crude is a number being talked about as OPEC appears ready to stand pat on production and weather the storm of lower prices.
Oil prices are likely to remain low for some time to come and while you can make the argument that lower crude oil is good for the economy, energy companies are likely to remain under significant pressure. This could potentially lead to a reversal in stocks and lower equity prices.
Crude oil is not the only commodity ringing the alarm bell. Copper and natural gas also remain at lower levels with further possible downside in the cards. These weaker commodity prices may stoke fears of deflation and could potentially drive more interest in “safe haven” asset classes, such as gold, silver and treasuries.
Adding to pressure in commodities is the strength being seen in the dollar index. While the greenback has pulled back from recent highs; it does appear poised to potentially retest the highs seen earlier this month. Further strength in the dollar may weigh not only on commodities but stocks as well.
Gold could potentially see some fresh buying now that lift-off has occurred. The pace of rate hikes may now be the key factor for gold, and although some are anticipating four rate hikes next year, the fed funds market is anticipating only two rate hikes in 2016.
On the other hand, gold may have another leg lower before finding a bottom. Gold is currently within striking distance of the $1000 per ounce level and could potentially see a test of this level before finding more solid footing.
Gold will likely be driven by price action in stocks and the dollar index going into year’s end and the beginning of Q1.
