Hello and welcome to our market week preview, where we take a look at the economic data, market news, and headlines likely to have the biggest impact on pricing and market momentum for gold, silver, and platinum, as well as key correlated assets.
Gold Market
Last week offered a view that gold prices could enjoy strong tailwinds for the foreseeable future, now that the market no longer seems interested in unwinding risk-off gold positions taken in response to the latest threat leveled or action taken by the current US administration, when the executive (as has been a pattern since January 2025) backs down from its most hawkish rhetoric. With this trade dynamic apparently taking priority as a price-input over even FOMC monetary policy decisions, our suggestion was that the only fundamental resistance level against the yellow metal that looked predictable would be round, psychologically significant mark of $5000/oz in spot markets. From mid-day on Monday, even that ceiling seems to have been just vapor as gold spot prices have gained more than +$75/oz to trade at $5070. Following the killing in Minneapolis over the weekend, the flight away from the US Dollar and Dollar-backed Treasury paper has accelerated considerably not only in a risk-off response to the general concern that investors or desks (or the marketplace as a whole) cannot reasonably predict for the strain the Trump administration may place on the US and global economic system, but as shift to near-term risk management as the threat of another US government shutdown at the end of this month is now much more tangible as members of the US legislature threaten to vote down any new funding package that includes allocations to DHS. This narrative and its developments will be in direct competition with Wednesday’s FOMC announcement to see which has tighter control over markets like gold, the Dollar, and US equities.
Silver Market
We see this trade dynamic being referred to more often within the market as “the debasement trade,” as in it is safe-haven positioning in response to debasement of the value— present and future— of the US Dollar. And while we’ve seen some eye-popping and record-high numbers as a result of this debasement trade pushing gold prices +10% higher in spot and futures markets, what feels like the real historical performance is in the silver market which has surged by roughly +25% over the same short time period and risen above the previously unthinkable level of $100/oz of fine silver. Silver often trades somewhat independently from its yellow cousin by virtue of the intrinsic value gained from having critical uses in modern manufacturing. But for now, it looks as if silver is benefiting just as dramatically as gold from the spiking fear indexes across all financial markets.
Platinum Market
Looking just at Monday’s trading session so far, platinum is a bit of an outlier as the grey metal is selling off in the spot markets following the COMEX close for the day. Dislocation between the platinum group, gold and silver is not common, but since December of last year, platinum has been participating in the same general rally for precious metals. So the sharp afternoon drop of -2.5% intraday is something we’ll try to monitor this week. That said, platinum is still, like its cousins, up by more than +10% week-over-week (inclusive of Monday’s slide) and trading at $2700/oz in spot markets. Assuming the “debasement trade” continues to be an important market input for the near-term, one thing we will be watching with regard to how these three metals interact with each other as tied and separate assets will be the possible creation of a “positive” feedback loop. Given their criticality to global manufacturing, record-high market prices for silver and platinum (achieved over such short periods) could become a real pain point for global manufacturing if they persist. Fear of this, if it becomes tangible, is likely to accelerate the debasement trade and other risk-off strategies, making all three metals more expensive, and so on.
US Economic Data to Watch this Week
FOMC Interest Rate Decision // Wednesday, January 28 at 2pm ET
[The Federal Reserve is expected to hold policy rates UNCH this month.]
And that’s how the precious metals basket is performing to begin the week. As always, we wish you all the best of luck in your markets in the coming days, and we’ll look forward to seeing you all back here next week for another metals market preview.
