Hello and welcome to our market week notes, where we take a look at the economic data, market news, and headlines likely to have the biggest impact on pricing and market momentum for gold, silver and platinum, as well as key correlated assets.

The biggest story happening in this space this week is spread across all three metals groups. As of lunch time in New York, gold spot prices are down $200/oz and platinum spot has dropped more than $325. Silver’s fall of $7.50/oz looks paltry in notional terms but represents a discount of nearly -10% against Friday’s close.

This isn’t to be taken as a sign that a bubble is bursting, however. And with little in the way of scheduled activity on the docket until the new year begins in earnest, let’s take some time today to look at the factors driving this last leg of volatility for 2025 and set the table for 2026.

Profit-Taking Liquidators

The dominant factor we are seeing take shape on Monday and will expect to be in-play over these final trading sessions of 2025 even as it is likely to moderate following the initial volatility is profit-taking. One of the few common realities of both institutional and retail trading is that locked-in profits are almost always much more meaningful and attractive than theoretical gains in the future; a comparison that essentially boils down to unvested paper gains vs. cold, hard cash in hand. With three trading days left to lock in P&L for 2025 ‘s accounting, selling has hit gold, silver, and the platinum group metals aggressively in US trading today: gold is down roughly -5% on the day, silver is down -9.5%, and platinum and palladium are marked nearly -15% discounted to Friday’s closing bids. This is not necessarily a signal of bulls losing interest in any of these investments, but more a practical matter of taking advantage of a gold market that has rallied more than 70% in 2025 and silver prices that have blown beyond 45-year highs, making 1 Troy-oz of the metal now worth more than a barrel of crude oil.

Margin Rate Hikes

A change to market mechanics is likely exacerbating the for-profit sell-off today. The CME has announced higher margin requirements on futures contracts for gold, silver, platinum, and other metals, requiring traders and managers to put more cash down when buying contracts or establishing new positions. Leaving aside any number of conspiracy theories about the margin hikes or their timing, this is a fairly standard move by the exchange often made in response to periods of high volatility or outsized price increases. For precious metals of course, we’ve seen both over the last three months. We can expect the initial impact of this change to moderate in the weeks ahead, but for today it seems clear the higher costs of buying are convincing investors and traders that may have been on the fence to sell.

2026

It would be difficult to imagine the precious metals repeating their record-breaking 2025 performance next year. (Of course, it has to be said that we wouldn’t have predicted a year ago either.) But the truth is that none of the underlying factors that facilitated the 2025 surge have really fallen away. The Federal Reserve may be approaching a moment of pause in the current rate-cut cycle, but the market’s consensus bet is still firmly placed on two more cuts in 2026. Inflation metrics have looked less threatening over the last 6-months, but price pressures are far from a non-issue in the new year especially as the Trump Trade War shows little signs of ending our changing course. The supply issues that have recently accelerated rallies in silver and platinum, both metals with critical industrial uses beyond their intrinsic value as precious metals will indeed be an important factor in the medium term, and ETFs and central banks are poised to continue Q4’s aggressive inflows into gold, supporting the yellow metal at or above $4250/oz.

As ever, the trading year of 2026 is a blank slate but looks sure to be another busy one. Geopolitical tensions remain alarmingly high, and the world’s major economies and financial centers continue to grapple with inflationary pressures and the ramifications of a global trade war that defies precedent and conventional models. Not to mention a crucial round of mid-term elections in the center of (for now) the world’s largest economy. On a smaller scale, we don’t have to wait all that long for action to track in the metals space or other key assets, as we look for the December Jobs report – the first to be printed on-schedule following the US government shutdown– to be released next Friday.

And that’s how the precious metals basket is performing to begin the week. As always, we wish you all the best of luck in your markets in the coming days, and we’ll look forward to seeing you all back here next week for another metals market preview.