Market Overview: Both gold and silver are moving higher today as risk aversion is on the rise. The latest news concerning Deutsche Bank is alarming, and some are now pondering what further troubles for the embattled bank could mean for global markets. The bank is currently in negotiations over a U.S. lawsuit regarding subprime mortgage disclosures, and a number in the neighborhood of $14 billion is being tossed around as a potential settlement figure. Such a number would likely take a significant toll on the bank and could add to current pressure on its stock price which has already seen declines of almost 60 percent this year.
Deutsche Bank may remain at the forefront of headlines for the time being, and the situation bears a resemblance to what Citigroup faced in 2008 and 2009. The question is, however, whether or not Germany will foot the bill for a bailout should one become necessary.
Key Data Points: The latest reading on Chicago PMI this morning was above consensus estimates registering a reading of 54.2. Consensus estimates were looking for a reading of 52.
Consumer Sentiment is also set for release this morning with consensus estimates calling for a reading of 90.1.
Outside Markets: Stocks are trading higher in early action today even as risk aversion appears to be on the rise. Equities were hit hard yesterday afternoon on a report that some Deutsche Bank hedge fund clients were removing some excess capital and positions from the bank. Calmer heads are prevailing thus far today, although stocks and risk assets would certainly appear vulnerable to selling pressure if there is additional negative news about Deutsche Bank.
Crude oil remains within ear shot of the $50 level, although hopes for a meaningful cut back or freeze in production appear to have faded. Should crude begin to weaken once again, equity markets may have another potential reason to begin moving lower.
The Big Picture: Now that markets have apparently become comfortable with the idea of a December rate hike by the Fed, investors will turn their attention elsewhere. The recent news about Deutsche Bank is troubling to say the least, and while the risks may not be as great as they were in 2008, significant risks to the global economy may exist. This issue has the potential to move global markets, and pressure may mount on Germany to come up with a bailout plan should one become necessary. Thus far, German officials do not seem likely to intervene, and that may cause further anxiety in the marketplace. This could potentially keep a bid in gold, silver and other perceived safe haven assets.