Market Overview: Gold is flat in early trade this morning while silver is putting together some decent gains in early action. These markets remain in a very bearish technical posture, and it remains to be seen if a near-term bottom is in the works. Trading action may be somewhat subdued this week ahead of the Federal Reserve, which is expected to raise interest rates for the second time in a year. Although a rate hike appears to be a foregone conclusion at this point, investors will likely pay close attention to the central bank’s commentary looking for any clues about the pace and timing of further rate hikes next year.
Key Data Points: There are no major pieces of economic data set for release today. Investors will focus their attention on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting announcement at which it is expected the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points. The forecasts and press conference following the Fed’s decision could potentially be market-moving, and investors will listen closely for clues about the pace of further rate hikes next year.
In addition to the Fed, investors will get the latest readings on PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial production, CPI, Weekly Jobless Claims, Housing Starts and more.
Outside Markets: Stocks are slightly lower in early trade today and are likely just taking a breather after last week’s run higher. Equities are poised to make further all-time highs, and at current levels it is difficult to say where the rally may run out of steam. As long as risk appetite remains elevated, stocks could have considerable room to run even higher.
Treasuries are declining again today as the bond sell-off continues.
Crude oil gapped higher today and is up sharply as non-OPEC producers agreed to a production cut over the weekend. Oil is now firmly above the psychologically important $50 per barrel level, and strength in the sector may fuel further buying in equities.
The dollar index is slightly lower today but remains not far from recent highs.
The Big Picture: Not much has changed for gold and silver in recent days, and perhaps a rate hike this week will actually give these markets a boost. The combination of stronger stocks, a stronger dollar and elevated risk appetite along with rising rates is creating a situation in which a sustainable upside rally in gold and silver may be difficult to achieve. The path of least resistance remains lower in these metals until proven otherwise.
