Gold prices are trading near the unchanged mark early Friday as buying interest remains fairly muted given the current U.S. Government shutdown and looming debt battle. With the ongoing partial government shutdown, there will be no data released today. The U.S. Department of Labor's jobs data for September was due to be released today as it is the first Friday of the month, but given the current scenario market participants will have to wait.
Thus far, investors have appeared to remain very calm and collected given the current shutdown which does not appear to have any end in sight as if this point. One has to wonder however, just how far investor's patience may be stretched before some panic selling begins to set in. As of this post, it does not appear that there will be any meaningful progress made on the issues today, and therefore the shutdown will likely continue into the middle of next week in a best case scenario and much longer than that in a worst case scenario.
Some estimates show the shutdown costing U.S. tax payers $300 million per day. As we also approach the debt ceiling, investors could get very jittery and we could see a widespread "Risk-off" period hit markets if no progress is at least being made. Next week will be very important as it is likely investors get fed up and we see this risk-off approach start to enter markets.
There will be some Fed officials speaking today and their comments will likely be closely monitored by investors for any clues as to how how the current shutdown could effect any potential actions by the central bank.
Gold prices remain in a down trend on the daily charts. It is worth noting however, that the gold market did see a very nice bounce of the lows reached earlier this week. Those lows coincided with the lows reached in early August and that level has acted as support for gold prices thus far. Gold prices today are flirting with their 9 day EMA at the $1319.20 level while the key 20 day EMA rests just above at the $1329.20 level.
Should gold prices be able to punch through these moving averages to the upside it could trigger a round of short covering and fresh buying entering the market. The other key market to watch currently is the U.S. dollar index. The greenback has been working lower and is currently trading at the lowest levels since February. Additional weakness in the dollar could support gold prices, and even potentially act as a catalyst for a large rally should the dollar index break longer term support around the 78.50 level.