Hello and welcome to our market week preview, where we take a look at the economic data, market news, and headlines likely to have the biggest impact on pricing and market momentum for gold, silver and platinum, as well as key correlated assets.

Gold Markets

Oil prices– stubbornly high and occasionally rising– and the expected downstream impact in terms of higher global inflation, and the high-risk tension in the Middle East underlying it all continue to be a major impediment to gold prices as we begin a new week. Whereas risk-on trading, relatively speaking, was a major part of last week’s trading across major asset classes, including precious metals, with the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the very tenuous cease-fire agreements between the US (and Israel) and Iran approaching its expiration date, we are again seeing oil prices creep higher as the US Dollar surges forward again. Traders and money managers are again falling back to safe-havens in fear that failure to secure an agreement to at least extend the current cease-fire, which the US administration is currently signalling is far from certain, will both considerably reduce the odds of the next cut to interest rates before Q4 of this year while also raising the risk that the Federal Reserve could be forced to hike rates instead in response to resurgent price pressures.

However, the impact of this novel but persistent version of risk-off positioning that does not favor gold appears to force a ceiling much more than any strong downward pressure. Perhaps because the underlying macroeconomic concern here is elevated inflation– which over the long arc of history has lifted the yellow metal higher– spot prices look to still have strong support just below the $4800/oz level. With a very sparse macro data calendar on offer this week and the FOMC in the usual blackout period preceding next week’s meeting and rate decision we anticipate gold’s trading patterns this week will hinge almost entirely on how the cease-fire negotiations progress with the current deadline of Wednesday evening looming.

Silver and Platinum Markets

Silver continues to trade in alignment with gold prices in the current environment. After a surge of optimism ahead of the weekend pushed spot prices noticeably higher late last week, the failure to reach an agreement while markets were closed has stripped most of that gain back. But at the same time, support for silver appears consistent at or just below $80/oz despite lacking room to climb higher.

Platinum has fared somewhat worse, sliding below 4-week highs which neared $2200/oz at times last week to now trade just above the key psychological level of $2000. While platnum is subject to the same sell-signals impeding gold and silver right now (namely, a higher US Dollar and worries about the near-term interest rate path,) the constriction of global shipping lines as a result of rising fuel prices hits platinum particularly hard given that production of the grey metal of manufacturing use is so heavily concentrated in South Africa and Russia; two regions that in the best of times are primed for disruption.

Key Data to Watch this Week

Tuesday, April 21 at 830am ET // Retail Sales (Mar)
[consensus est.: +1.4% MoM // prev.: +0.6%]

Tuesday, April 21 at 10am ET // Fed Chair Nominee Warsh Confirmation Hearing

And that’s how the precious metals basket is performing to begin the week. As always, we wish you all the best of luck in your markets in the coming days, and we’ll look forward to seeing you all back here next week for another metals market preview.